This Is The Bottom (Or very near it)

More text to come, but Friday morning March 13th marked the bottom in my view

QE2? What de FED really said about new economic stimulus

Quantitative easening round 1 ended earlier this year, with which also the year long rally in the Western markets ended.

Last week the news in the media emerged that the FED is preparing a new stimulus round in case the economy will slow down again.

According to the media the markets declined on this news, as they viewed this as a sign that the economy will be slowing down.
Opposed to that, I view this as very bullish (stock) news, as to me it appears that only excessive stimulus money can drive up the stock prices up in the current situation.

Reason the more to look at what the FED did actually say in the June 23 meeting(the notes are available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20100623.pdf):

Most notable excerpts:

• Production, working hours and spending have risen or have remained at the same levels after a rise in March and April
• After the stimulus stopped, Housing prices and Housing permit numbers have started to decrease somewhat
• While the recent data on production and spending were broadly in line with the staff’s expectations, the pace of the expansion over the next year and a half was expected to be somewhat slower than previously predicted.
• Members noted that in addition to continuing to develop and test instruments to exit from the period of unusually accommodative monetary policy, the Committee would need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably.

Summary:

• Outlook of economic expansion has been revised 0.2% downwards for 2010. New predictions:3.25% for 2010, 3.85% for 2011, 4% for 2012
• Committee will consider further policy stimulus if the outlook were to worsen appreciably.

Conclusion:

1. General message in media was false:Markets have declined because of lower prospect of economic growth instead of possible additional stimulus (btw the markets declined 3% in the week, which might have been an exaggerated reaction).
   Personal note: Check the sources instead of blindly following (mainstream) media spin.
   
2. It seems that the committee will undertake new stimulus of the economic outlook worsens further.
   This should be positive for the stockprices in the Medium Term
   

TMS and Deflation following the Austrian theory

An interesting opinion on True Money Supply (TMS) and Deflation as defined by the Austrian school of Economics:

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/austrian-economics-true-money-supply.html

Portfolio update - Expand position - Oceana Gold

Im looking to expand my position in Oceana Gold (OGC TSE/ASX) on Monday July 12th

Fundamental:

• Still heavily undervalued compared to peers (e.g. Semafo)
• Safe jurisdiction (NZ),
  Proven shareholderfriendly management,
  no dilution (except for removing hedges early 2010),
  recently removed hedges so good earnings ahead,
  3 producing mines, so limited risk when one of the mines needs to halt,
  solid amount of ounces in ground,
  Cash cost of about (I thought) 500 usd
  upside of selling/bringing into production Didipio (Philipinnes, less safer country),
  enough cash generating to make acquisition move in future.

Chart:

• Chart has been showing steep and solid uptrend since Oct 2009.
• Stockprice looks to be at bottom of trend zone, ready to re-rise.

Currently on TSE 3.01 cad (= 3,32 aud)
Currently on ASX 3.12 aud (discount of 6%!!)

About 2 months ago the stock also was undervalued on ASX vs TSE.
After that there was a peak in the stock of 3.88 aud vs 3,47 cad (=3,94 aud)
So, under(/over)value on ASX appears to be a temporary situation

Therefore:
Buy july 12th 2500 euro (= 1150 pcs)
@ 3,16 aud, else in the afternoon at 3,05 cad
Sell limit: 4,20 aud / 3,8 cad

Private note: Sell after sell of stock the profit in Aud back to euro (to keep currency basket in proportion)